First Ripple the company needs to do well. Since XRP is centralized, if Ripple dies so too does XRP. Next Ripple needs to sign up 100x as many banks and financial institutions on xCurrent to become as big as SWIFT at sending payments internationally. Then the banks need to start using xRapid and settling transactions with XRP. In this process, SWIFT, a 45 year old group that has been evolving with technology over that time, needs to fail to offer a competitive product to Ripple and lose their entire market share. Also R3 and other startups breaking into this space have to fail too. And only at this time will all 100 billion XRP coins be worth approximately $231 million, or $0.0023 per coin. This being said, Ripple is still an amazing company. Even if they fail to capture the entire SWIFT market, they could still offer a valuable suite of products to banks. They could still generate significant revenue and command a high price per share.